Speculation linking Max Verstappen to Mercedes started last year. With Red Bull Racing unable to provide the four-time F1 Drivers' Champion with a car that matched his talents, much was said about the Dutchman potentially triggering his exit from the team. That was thanks to performance requirements in his contract.
Things seemed to change when Red Bull Team Principal was ousted, and Verstappen ended up finishing the 2025 season just 2 points behind the eventual Drivers' Champion, Lando Norris.
However, Red Bull's turnaround didn't last. The 2026 season has started disastrously for the Milton Keynes-based team, and issues with both the new Ford engine and the new regulations have put Red Bull at a serious disadvantage (Verstappen didn't even finish the second race in China).
At this rate, there's a very real risk of them becoming a midfield team, and that won't be good enough for Verstappen. Despite concerns that he might walk away from Formula 1 due to unhappiness with the shift to cars that rely heavily on electrical energy, speculation about Verstappen eyeing a Mercedes move continues.
It's no secret that Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff has long wanted to sign Verstappen, but he seemed to dispel the rumours in a recent interview.
"The amazing thing is that these ridiculous rumors are already rearing their heads in March," he said. "It is bad enough that you normally have to discuss these things as early as July. I don't know who brought this up again."
"We have two drivers with whom we have long-term, multi-year contracts," Wolff continued, referring to George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. "I couldn't be happier with both of them. Both are delivering top performances, so there is absolutely no reason to even consider a change to the lineup. I say this with the greatest respect for Max."
There's rarely any loyalty in Formula 1, and if Verstappen becomes a free agent, it's hard to imagine Wolff not jumping at the chance to bring him on board. That could change if Russell wins the title this year, but if the Mercedes boss believes Verstappen can bring them record-breaking success, that may not ultimately matter.
As for Antonelli, while Wolff is high on the rising star, the pressure will be on him to perform at the highest level possible this year, especially if Verstappen does decide to move on from Red Bull.
Only time will tell what happens, but all eyes will be on Verstappen in the coming months as his F1 future hopefully becomes clearer to us.